“Verity," a Colleen Hoover Adaptation, Opens Strong While Tom Cruise Stumbles | Movie Releases & Trends — Weekend of October 2, 2026

The box office continues to do well, and is currently sitting at nearly $8 billion, up 20% from last year at this time, and up 10% from the previous high postpandemic year of 2023.  

“Verity” took the top spot this weekend, delivering a strong, $32 million opening for a psychological thriller. Directed by Michael Showalter and starring Anne Hathaway, Dakota Johnson, and Josh Hartnett, the film is the fourth adaptation of a Colleen Hoover novel to hit the big screen.

Can Colleen Hoover's Fans Counter the Critics' Disdain?

“Verity” is also something of a departure for Hoover adaptations. The first three “It Ends with Us,”  "Regretting You," and  “Reminders of Him” leaned heavily into romance and melodrama, while “Verity” moves firmly into psychological and erotic thriller territory.

The film is also generating a significant divide between critics and audiences. Critics have given it only about a 33%–34% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, while the audience score is substantially stronger at roughly 69%–70%.  

That gap may be particularly meaningful for a movie like “Verity,” where the built-in Colleen Hoover fan base can be more important to theatrical performance than critical consensus. A $32 million opening is an excellent result for a psychological thriller and demonstrates the continued ability of recognizable IP and passionate fan communities to drive audiences into theaters. ‍

The Fan Base Paradox: Not All Fan Bases Are Created Equal

Fan bases can make or break a film's theatrical prospects. But not all fan loyalty translates to box office success equally. The weekend's contrasting results between "Verity" and "Digger" reveal a critical insight: book-to-screen adaptations mobilize readers in ways that celebrity star power alone cannot.

“Digger” was the weekend's biggest disappointment. While it managed to come in 4th overall in dollars, it sinks to 6th in actual number of tickets sold. It opened with only $8 million.

The film is an epic black comedy starring Tom Cruise as the world's most powerful man, who races to prove he is humanity's savior before a climate disaster of his own making destroys everything. An $8 million opening is extremely soft for a Tom Cruise vehicle, particularly one with the scale and marketing investment of “Digger."

There is an interesting disconnect here: $8 million isn't necessarily a terrible result for a small black comedy, but “Digger” is anything but a small movie. Its combination of a major star, large budget, and high-concept premise created expectations for a substantially bigger theatrical launch.

Reception hasn't helped. Critics have been mixed, CinemaScore is a weak C+, and early word-of-mouth has been unfavorable. For a movie that needs audiences to embrace an unconventional concept and tone, that combination can make it particularly difficult to build momentum after opening weekend.

Looking Ahead, the Weekend Brings a Diverse Group of New Releases

“Your Mother Your Mother Your Mother” is an action-crime thriller starring Mahershala Ali as a deeply religious Muslim hitman whose life is upended when his wife suddenly dies, leaving him to care for their three children, including an infant who is allergic to baby formula. He embarks on a frantic and increasingly violent journey across the city to find breast milk for his child.

The film has been receiving overwhelmingly positive reviews, currently sitting at a 97% Tomatometer on Rotten Tomatoes. Its unusual premise, strong critical reception, and Mahershala Ali's star power give it a clear opportunity to stand out in a crowded marketplace.  

Horror also gets another major release with “Other Mommy," starring Jessica Chastain in an adaptation of Josh Malerman's 2024 bestselling novel "Incidents Around the House."

Chastain has received particular praise for her unsettling performance, reportedly building the character around a fixed smile; wide, unblinking eyes; and an almost inhuman demeanor. The film also takes a somewhat different approach to horror. Rather than relying primarily on the traditional quiet-loud jump-scare formula, it emphasizes psychological dread, child-perspective tension, and an intentionally colorful, off-kilter visual aesthetic.

That approach is reminiscent of director Rob Savage's earlier work, including “The Boogeyman.” “Other Mommy” is expected to open in the neighborhood of $30 million, which would represent another strong theatrical result for horror and further reinforce the genre's continued commercial strength.

“The Social Reckoning” also opens this weekend. Billed as a legal and biographical drama written and directed by Aaron Sorkin, it serves as a companion piece to 2010's “The Social Network.” Set 16 years after the events of the original, the film dramatizes the 2021 Facebook whistleblower scandal and The Wall Street Journal's "Facebook Files" investigation.

Reception has been mixed. While Sorkin's dialogue remains a central attraction, many critics have argued that the film lacks the sense of alienation, visual sophistication, and cultural impact that made “The Social Network” so distinctive. The movie is currently expected to open below $13 million, a relatively soft result considering its $50 million budget. For comparison, “The Social Network” opened to $22 million in 2010.  

Even Streaming Giants Need Theaters to Win Awards

Another upcoming release of note: Netflix’s “Animals," starring Ben Affleck and Kerry Washington, which is getting a limited theatrical release while simultaneously becoming available on the streaming service.

The action-crime drama is another example of Netflix's increasingly strategic approach to theatrical releases. A day-and-date limited in theater release can provide a film with the theatrical footprint necessary to qualify for major awards consideration while also generating publicity and cultural conversation around the movie's streaming debut.  

The strategy is less about maximizing traditional box-office revenue and more about balancing awards eligibility, theatrical prestige, and the importance of Netflix subscriber value.

How Will 2026 Shake Out?

The march toward a $10B box office continues. Fueled by a surprisingly durable late-summer and September market, 2026 remains well ahead of 2023 and 2024 levels. Major hits like Sony’s “Spider-Man: Brand New Day” ($898M domestic) and Universal’s “The Odyssey" ($570M) helped anchor a strong first half, while resilient September performances from titles including “Resident Evil” and “Verity” kept momentum high through the traditionally slower transition into fall.  

With a major holiday slate including “Avengers: Doomsday”, “Dune: Part Three,” and “The Hunger Games,” the fourth quarter has the firepower to push the year across the $10 billion finish line.  

How Numetrix’s Audience Measurement Can Help Drive Insights

• How many tickets will be sold this coming weekend? Find out on our next Cinema Ranker for a box office forecast and follow us on LinkedIn to stay up to date with the latest cinema industry insights.

• To learn more about Numetrix and explore our audience measurement solutions designed to support box office forecasting and cinema audience insights, click here.

• Don't forget to also explore the broader suite from The Marketing Cloud to unlock AI-driven marketing solutions that help teams across market research, comms, creative, and media.